West Azerbaijan's Climate Changes Predict using exponential statistical Downscaling, HADCM3 model's output and evaluation of its effects on drought

Beigli, Z.; Montaseri, M.; Balyani, Y.; Jokar, E.; Bayat, A.

West Azerbaijan's Climate Changes Predict using exponential statistical Downscaling, HADCM3 model's output and evaluation of its effects on drought

Document Type : ترویجی

Authors

Z. Beigli ¹

M. Montaseri ²

Y. Balyani ³

E. Jokar ⁴

A. Bayat ⁵

¹ MA in Water Resources Engineering

² Associated prof in Water Resources Engineering, university of Urmia

³ PhD in climatology, university of Kharazmi

⁴ MA in GIS and RS, university of ShahidChamran Ahvaz

⁵ PhD student in climatology, university of Kharazmi

Abstract

In this study, using LARS-WG and HADCM3 model under three scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC confirmed the amount of precipitation, minimum temperature and maximum temperature in the West Azerbaijan province, periods 2030-2011, 2065-2046 and 2099-2080 in four synoptic stations consists of Urmia, Khoy, Mahabad and Maku, Data that has been perfect, it was anticipated that changes were studied. The results showed that rainfall in West Azarbaijan Province during 2030-2011 than 3 months, Mar, Dec, Aug any three scenario, we have of Sep, Jul scenarios A1B and B1, as well as the rest of the month subsequent period has decreased. Minimum and maximum temperature in all courses and all three scenarios is an incremental process.
Evaluation of drought in the province three periods based on the De martonne index showing that regional climate all courses and stations except Urmia station under scenario A2 and Maku station under all three scenarios in the 2099-2080 period the climate is arid, semi-arid class is classified. Thus, the results suggest that the regional climate during the ward of the future will change and related global phenomenon requiring application deailed plan to deal with these changes will be.

Keywords

Climate change

West Azarbaijan

LARS-WG

model HADCM3

De martonne index

Subjects